Lagos State’s public transport community is present process important adjustments, with the ongoing enlargement of the Blue Line, developments on the Red Line and plans for a proposed monorail linking Murtala Muhammed International Airport to the rail community.
As these tasks progress, questions stay about the capability of present providers, the effectiveness of deliberate expansions and how finest to enhance connectivity for commuters and air travellers.
In an unique interview with Nairametrics, unbiased transport researcher Tonami Playman examined the state’s transportation plans, assessing the efficiency of its rail providers, the implications of deliberate expansions and the proposed airport connection.
He additionally mentioned the operational adjustments wanted to enhance the impression of rail transport on mobility throughout Lagos.
The scale of passenger exercise throughout the community supplies helpful context for the dialogue. Afolabi Olamide, co-founder and chief govt officer of Touch and Pay Technologies (TAP), which operates the Cowry fare cost platform, stated regulated buses file greater than 5 million month-to-month passenger journeys, in contrast with roughly 500,000 on the Blue Line and 100,000 on the Red Line.
Nairametrics: Despite the introduction of the Blue and Red Lines, TAP says passenger volumes on bus corridors served by the rail community have remained comparatively secure. What may clarify this sample, and what would wish to vary for rail providers to considerably enhance journey instances and cut back stress on Lagos roads?
Tonami Playman: The Lagos Blue Line remains to be too brief to have a noticeable impression. Its present low-frequency operation of 4 trains per hour makes that worse. The Red Line is much more poorly applied, with its service frequency measured in trains per day as an alternative of trains per hour.
For rail transit to have an effect, service frequency must be radically improved to international ranges. That means a minimal of 10–12 trains per hour, not 4 trains per hour or 5 trains each day.
The rail community additionally must be expanded to supply better protection and correctly built-in with reorganised bus routes that complement rail providers.
Nairametrics: The Lagos State Government plans to open three extra Blue Line stations at FESTAC, Alakija and Trade Fair by February 2027, extending the route by about 7.9 kilometres. What operational necessities ought to the authorities tackle to make sure the extension delivers dependable providers, notably by way of prepare availability and service frequency?
Tonami Playman: The extension of the Lagos Blue Line from its present western terminus at Mile 2 to Trade Fair is a welcome improvement. However, each line extension requires extra trains to keep up service frequency.
Going by the present schedule, the Blue Line wants 5 trains to keep up its present frequency of 4 trains per hour on the present part. An extension to Trade Fair would require two extra trains. A fleet of 5 trains might keep the four-trains-per-hour frequency by reducing turnaround time from 17 minutes to 5 minutes.
Even with the extension, the Blue Line must function at a a lot larger frequency to maximise the utilisation of the costly infrastructure. The minimal is 10 trains per hour, however 12 could be extra helpful. This would require a fleet of 11 trains for Phase 1 and 23 trains for the Phase 2 extension to Okokomaiko.
Nairametrics: The Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria has proposed a five-stop monorail connecting Ikeja Railway Station to the Murtala Muhammed International Airport. From a transport planning and financial perspective, what components ought to decide whether or not Lagos wants a devoted airport rail hyperlink, and what options ought to the authorities contemplate earlier than committing assets to the venture?
Tonami Playman: FAAN’s proposal for an airport monorail linking the worldwide and home terminals of Murtala Muhammed Airport to the Red Line at Ikeja Station looks like a good suggestion at first look, nevertheless it has elementary flaws that plague devoted airport rail hyperlinks.
First, devoted airport rail hyperlinks usually underperform in ridership as a result of airports are not main locations for many city travellers, probably leading to underused infrastructure.
Second, airport connections are finest applied as an integral a part of the city rail community reasonably than as specialised, devoted providers. Any airport hyperlink must be designed as an everyday cease on a region-wide metro line.
Third, the present implementation of the Red Line, with a frequency of 5 trains a day, is an abysmal service that does not warrant a devoted monorail hyperlink.
MMIA’s annual passenger traffic of seven million is just too small to justify spending funds on a devoted rail hyperlink, particularly when devoted airport rail hyperlinks serving airports with 50–70 million annual passengers underperform.
Prague ranks as considered one of the finest medium-sized international transit cities on a per-capita foundation, with a inhabitants of two.2 million and a 52% transit mode share. Its 65-kilometre, three-line metro community sees 1.5 million each day riders. The 144-kilometre tram community sees a million each day riders, whereas its fleet of 1,200 buses and 37 trolleybuses carries 780,000 each day riders.
Yet Prague has no rail hyperlink to Václav Havel Airport. Instead, the airport, which handles 18 million passengers yearly in contrast with seven million for Lagos, is served by 5 bus and trolleybus traces connecting it to completely different components of the metropolis’s metro community.
Nairametrics: The proposed airport monorail is predicted to attach with the Lagos Red Line at Ikeja Railway Station. How ought to the authorities assess the Red Line’s service frequency, passenger capability and reliability earlier than deciding whether or not the proposed connection would ship significant advantages to commuters and air travellers?
Tonami Playman: Service frequency on the Red Line is vital, however even at an optimum frequency of 12 trains per hour, or 192 trains each day in contrast with the present 5 trains each day, it nonetheless would not justify a devoted airport rail hyperlink.
Airport travellers make up a tiny fraction of any metropolitan space’s commuter traffic. Building a devoted rail hyperlink that might inevitably entice low ridership is like utilizing public funds to purchase Rolls-Royces for the tiny elite that flies, at the expense of the wider Lagos inhabitants.
An airport rail connection ought to not be a precedence. The projected ridership might be higher served by dependable bus connections to a number of areas.
Nairametrics: Lagos is investing in rail extensions, Quality Bus Corridors and interchange hubs to enhance public transport. What measurable indicators ought to the authorities use to find out whether or not these investments are delivering worth for cash and enhancing mobility for commuters?
Tonami Playman: The most respected metric for measuring transit enhancements is ridership. Transit investments want to satisfy or exceed ridership expectations to be thought of profitable.
Accurate ridership measurements must be carried out at each stage, from planning to rollout and post-implementation.
