Dike (*13*)
The export sub-index of the Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) Business Confidence Monitor (BCM), fell into contraction territory in October 2026, whereas the monetary outcomes index moved into enlargement territory.
According to the NESG BCM report, readings above 100 is enlargement whereas readings decrease that 100 signifies contraction. However, value of doing enterprise and costs (producer costs) have an inverse interpretation, which means that an index rising in direction of or above 100 signifies easing stress, whereas a decline in direction of or beneath 100 alerts rising stress.
The export sub-index fell from 103 in September to 95.1 in October 2026, which is its least efficiency since October 2025 when the sub-index stood at 105.5.
But the monetary consequence’s index rose from contraction at 99.1 in September to 132.1 in October 2026.
The BCM additionally reported that the price of doing enterprise and costs sub-indices reported elevated prices and producer costs at readings beneath the impartial 100-point threshold at 45.2 and 65.5 factors, respectively.
The report acknowledged that each readings rose relative to the earlier month’s ranges, implying that value and worth pressures eased however remained elevated in October 2026.
It mentioned that regardless of sustained enterprise development, most companies grappled with key constraints, particularly irregular electrical energy provide, credit score squeeze, insecurity, excessive rental prices, and insufficient infrastructure.
These challenges could have partly contributed to elevated value pressures throughout the month.
However, the BCM’s present enterprise efficiency index “CBPI) confirmed that Nigeria’s enterprise exercise sustained its enlargement in October 2026.
The CBPI moderated to 115.4 factors from 117.8 factors in September 2026, however rose from 111.3 factors in October 2025.
Although all sectors remained in enlargement territory in October 2026, solely commerce and providers carried out higher than in the earlier month.
The report additionally mentioned that future enterprise expectations index stood at 130.8 factors, up from 128.9 in September 2026, which mirrored improved optimism about short-term enterprise circumstances.
It mentioned: “Trade registered the strongest optimism level at 194.0 points, followed by manufacturing (145.1 points) and non-manufacturing (135.0 points). Conversely, services and agriculture recorded relatively weaker optimism. The overall positive outlook reflects strong consumer demand during the year-end festivities and ongoing campaign activities.”
According to the BCM, enterprise exercise in the agriculture sector continued to broaden in October 2026, as its CBPI recorded113.8 factors, which represented a slowdown from 117.7 factors in September 2026 however is above 111.4 factors a 12 months earlier. This mirrored subdued efficiency throughout most agro subsectors.
According to the report, out of the three subsectors that remained in enlargement territory in October 2026, solely livestock carried out higher than in the earlier month, whereas enterprise exercise slowed barely in crop manufacturing and considerably in agro-allied.
It mentioned, “Conversely, fishing remained in contraction territory, while forestry held steady around the neutral 100-point mark.”
In the identical vein, enterprise exercise in the manufacturing sector remained in enlargement territory in October 2026, because the sector’s CBPI stood at 107.3 factors, down from 108.4 and 111.3 factors in September 2026 and October 2025, respectively. Meanwhile, efficiency was uneven throughout manufacturing’s subsectors.
“Of the three largest subsectors, solely Food, Beverage & Tobacco remained in enlargement territory and carried out higher than in the earlier month. The remaining two subsectors (Textile, Apparel & Footwear and cement) both moved into or remained in contraction territory in October 2026. Notably, Chemical & Pharmaceutical Products, Plastic & Rubber Products, and Wood & Wood Products entered the enlargement territory.
“Meanwhile, Pulp, Paper and Paper Products and Non-Metallic Products moved into and remained in contraction territory, respectively, while the remaining subsectors held steady around the 100-point neutral threshold,” the BCM mentioned.
