Bitcoin faces THREE major tests – Can BTC avoid another 17% November crash?

This fall has not lived as much as the bulls’ expectations to date.

According to CoinGlass knowledge, Bitcoin [BTC] is down over 3.5% in October, closing in on final October’s 3.95% decline. With the month approaching its finish, consideration is already shifting to November. And there’s a cause for warning: In November 2025, BTC fell greater than 17%, recording the most important drop since November 2019. So, might historical past repeat itself, or will Bitcoin lastly break the bearish November sample?

Notably, ETF flows counsel that warning could already be creeping into the market. As AMBCrypto reported, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $625 million in every day internet outflows, marking their largest single-day outflow because the twenty fifth of June, when withdrawals hit $696 million. It is a major change in institutional positioning, particularly with November across the nook.

But from a macro perspective, this can be extra than simply random market noise.

According to the information from FedWatch, the percentages of a price hike have climbed over 10% and are up from 5.5% solely a day in the past. With the U.S. inflation at 3.7% in September, a price hike risk could grow to be much less of a far-fetched thought, particularly because the market expectations change. If the percentages climb additional, Bitcoin would possibly see another macro headwind heading into November.

Naturally, that brings the main target to the larger query: Is Bitcoin heading towards another November promote-off like 2025, or might the market break the sample this time?

Bitcoin outflows mount as rising oil costs threaten market momentum

Rising price-hike odds could also be signaling extra than simply issues over September’s inflation knowledge.

Rather, they might additionally replicate a rising sense of uncertainty about what lies forward. Brent crude has jumped greater than $117 a barrel for the primary time because the nineteenth of March, as fears of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran gas provide issues. That leaves oil simply $2 away from having damaged the yearly excessive. The key takeaway? The odds of U.S. crude costs topping $110 a barrel by the tip of the month have surged to a brand new excessive of 34%.

From a macro stage, a continued rise in oil costs could exacerbate inflationary pressures, which might make a price hike troublesome to disregard. On the opposite hand, CryptoQuant’s historic knowledge means that rising oil costs have typically coincided with weaker BTC momentum, and if this development persists, Bitcoin might even see elevated promoting stress within the coming months.

In essence, macro FUD may very well be setting the stage for another Bitcoin promote-off in November.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin ETF outflows suggest that some “strategic” traders are already hedging their bets as price hikes odds enhance, inflation stays excessive, odds of additional oil value hike will increase and bearish November patterns are again in focus.